A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
